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Punxsutawney Phil Beats the Mutual Fund Managers

Centre County, PA - Punxsutawney Phil is arguably the most well-known prognosticator in America. Groundhog Day was established in 1887, held annually on February 2nd.  A large crowd will wait with baited breath to see what this famous oracle is going to predict. At Gobblers Knob, at 7:20 am, the crowd will be awaiting the fame rodent’s prime indicator, a shadow. If he sees his shadow then six more weeks of bad weather and he heads back underground. If no shadow then it’s time to stay above ground and spring is closely approaching.

What’s curious about Phil’s predictions are they’ve only been right 39% of the time. This still beats the bulk of investment mutual fund managers who only have about a 15% winning track record.

Of all the Wall Street bullies, the prognosticator is by far the hardest one to coach investors about when it comes to financial planning. The reasons, these calculating gurus always have point-counterpoint data to support their many predictions. This is the group that likes to imply they have some insight that the rest of us don’t. I often wonder what motivates this group to share their wisdom and insight if they really knew what was going to happen moving forward in the stock market. Why would they need to share it with anyone? The answer is they don’t know. Their motivation is to sell the books, magazines, inside newsletters, etc.

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Comment   |  5 years, 11 months ago from State College, PA