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Does The Number One Pick Guarantee Anything?


As I write this the 2015 NFL draft is in its second day. Here in Green Bay everyone is talking about the number one pick cornerback Damarius Randall. The ‘experts’ are saying why he is a good pick and some are saying why he is a bad pick. In the past, I watched these ‘experts’ for a while until I realized that they have no idea who is the best pick or player. Until the player performs on the field, they have no idea who will be a star.

There was a lot of hype on the overall number one pick QB Jameis Winston from Florida State taken by Tampa Bay. He is said to be a, can’t miss player. Well if you look at history since the draft began a long time ago only 13 overall number one picks have gone on to the Hall of Fame.

There is a lot of hype every year regarding the NFL draft. The experts keep predicting, the public keeps watching. Except for one thing the draft is nothing more than a guessing game.

Our own Brett Favre was drafted in 1989 by Atlanta in the second round as the 33rd player chosen. That means 32 players were seen by the ‘experts’ as better choices. Thankfully in February 1992 Atlanta traded him to Green Bay. Oops! OK I’m biased but Brett did pretty well in Green Bay and will be in the Hall of Fame someday.

Tom Brady will be in the Hall of Fame someday as well. He was drafted in 2000 in the 6th round. That means that the ‘experts’ believed there were over 160 players better than him. Another oops!

The Packers chose Tony Mandarich as a, can’t miss offensive tackle in 1989. He was chosen before the great running back Barry Sanders in the same draft. The ‘experts’ missed again.

Looking back many variables may have changed history. Would Brett Favre have been as great without Steve Mariucci coaching him? Or would Tom Brady be as great as he was/is without Bill Belichick? No one can answer this with any degree of certainty.

Great players have great coaches. In the right setting at the right time, greatness happens.

While talking with investors I am amazed at how often they rely on ‘experts’. To pick the right stocks.  Or help them get into and out of the equity markets at the right time. Or even do their own homework and do it themselves. Without proper coaching these investors are likely to realize disappointing results. It is possible that some will succeed but this will be the result of luck and not skill.

Coaching provides proper strategy and most importantly DISCIPLINE. There will be times when a good coach will have you doing something that they do not want to do. Like buying equities in a down turn. As part of the process, scheduled rebalancing requires selling the good performers and buying the poor performers.

Players/investors become emotional during times of crisis and hype. Without good coaching these ‘players’ will make emotional decisions that go against their overall strategy/plan.

If you are working with an adviser whether human or robo and they allow you to do whatever you want. The fees you are paying are too high no matter how cheap they appear.

Coaching matters over the long term.

Stop empowering the Wall Street bullies. Fire your broker/agent and hire an investor coach/fiduciary adviser..

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Comment   |  2 years, 1 month ago from Green Bay, WI