Jump at Every Public Offering?
Social media company Twitter (TWTR) had their initial public offering (IPO) on Nov. 7. In an IPO, a private company makes shares available to the public for the first time. Twitter’s headline IPO saw a well-recognized, seven-year-old, unprofitable company with more than 232 million monthly active users enjoying a ton of hypebefore the opening bell even rang.
You must question picking the right IPO as the only way to reach your financial goals. Nothing’s further from the truth for the average investor. Our firm doesn’t recommend investing in the shares of IPOs for at least 12 months – especially media-hyped IPOs where demand for the shares pressures stock pricing.
Hot stocks, like all items subject to tremendous demand, cost more. Only through time does the push and pull of supply and demand eventually settle on what markets establish as the fair price.
When your philosophy of portfolio stock exposure calls for broad diversification in global markets, one additional company added to a portfolio with 10,000 or more holdings becomes less urgent. We frequently add most new companies to portfolios eventually and see no immediate need to buy into the ballyhoo of any one company. Patient trading insures a stock’s proper categorization.
The noise often surrounding IPOs constitutes one reason we delay purchasing them. Our experience shows that the most sought-after IPOs tend to narrow their stock offerings; less-popular floats flood the market.
Aside from these practical short-term issues, studies also point to long-run underperformance of IPOs regardless of profits for speculators who sell quickly after nabbing discounted stock in the offer period. According to Jim Parker at Dimensional Fund Advisors, Tim Loughran and Jay Ritter’s “The New Issues Puzzle” in the Journal of Finance ranks among the most referenced papers looking at IPOs issued in the preceding 25 years. From 1995 to 2000, investors received average annual returns of only 5%, the paper reports.
Ritter, considered an IPO expert, updated that data to take in 1980 to 2008 in his paper, “Some Factoids About the 2009 IPO Market.” He finds that firms with sales below $50 million tend to make a big splash on market debut then underperform larger counterparts. Both small and large firms he examined underperformed average market buy-and-hold returns over three years – smaller firms by a substantial margin.
Twitter may prove a good investment – or not. A recent Forbes article points out that stocks generally close above the offer price on the first day’s trading (as the dot-com bubble bore out), that investors who dive in on offering day see better returns if they hold the stock longer than six months and that original shareholders often surrender more than their fair share of the company to new stockholders in flashy IPOs.
Eventual stock value rides on the judgment of the market itself, not on marketing hype or blanket media coverage. That ride takes time. You and a good advisor wait patiently for the judgment.