On January 1, 1900 the DOW stood at 66 and on December 31, 1999 the DOW finished at 11,467. During that century, there were two presidents assassinated, a great depression and numerous recessions, two world wars and numerous conflicts, the greatest bout of inflation in our nation's history, a meltdown of Chernobyl, and any number of other major issues and problems. Yet the DOW finished up 17,374%!! During that time as well, we experienced a time between 1966 and 192 when the DOW first hit 1,000, then dropped about 20%; rose again to 1,000; dropped 30%; rose again to 1,000; dropped 40%; rose to 1,000; dropped 20%; then rose to 1,000 in August 1982 and this time kept going to 14,000 in early 2000. In August 1979 Business Week magazine had a cover story that proclaimed "The Death of Equities" in which they predicted the stock market would not come back.
Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat,; it rhymes." Will we see the market begin a march to 100,000? Who knows? I believe it will, probably not in the next ten years. But in my opinion, I believe it could in the next 20-25 years. It is also my opinion that we will see some impressive companies that do not exist today. Think of 1966. These companies did not exist: Apple, Microsoft, INtel, Genentech, Amgen, Starbucks, Costco, Cisco, Home Depot, Oracle, and so many more.
By the way, Standard Charter Bank of the UK has done a study that has been well received in which they identify periods of "Supercycles" when world GDP grow was significantly higher than average. The first period was 1870-1913 driven primarily by the industrialization of the United States. The second supercycle lasted from 1945-1970 driven primarily by the rebuilding of Europe. The third Supercycle they felt began in 2009 and will be driven by the emergence of developing nations. Adding to that thought, there are forecasts that by 2030 93% of the world's middle class will live in those developing countries.
Just my thoughts and opinions. You can hear more through my radio show, or by logging onto my website where the podcasts of previous programs are available:
Hope that answers your question.
There is no consensus on where the market will be by an expert. Historically it has trended up since inception. So that is here you would hope it would be. About 70% of the time on a year to year basis, the market is even or up anf the other 30% of the time you lose money.
Hi Caroline, Julian is right: There are always `experts' on each side of the question; that's what makes a market. Warren Buffet has stated, more than once, that he's never met anyone who could predict the stock market. The truth is everything fluctuates: Stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, collectibles - and all the while interest rates, inflation rates, all fluctuate as well. The only thing that doesn't fluctuate: We keep getting older. I wouldn't spend time worrying about the market. I'd be learning how to manage the various 'markets'. How you do that depends on your age, what stage of your financial life you're in, and your goals. I'm sure you can talk to a few advisors that are local to you and get some help. By the time you've talked to a few, you'll get a feel for who's thinking long-term, like you, and who's trying to sell you on 'performance' - always a red flag. Good luck!